You know, I had a fancy idea about how I was going to hook you into this story. My plan was to declare that fantasy baseball was like a gateway drug, because it's what got me hooked on fantasy sports. Then hoping to dazzle, I would throw out some facts about the history of baseball, some arcane statistics, and finish by touching on the birth of the nation wide addiction to fantasy sports.
Sounds pretty good, right? Only problem is throwing out pretentious facts wouldn't inspire the right message, so I will spare you any attempt at eloquence and replace it with the truth.
I bring a unique perspective to fantasy baseball, in that I represent a minority that is reluctant to be exposed:
The draft addict.
I probably did some 200 odd fantasy baseball drafts between the 2003 and 2005 seasons. In 2004, I managed to tie myself to over 100 leagues (always standard 5x5 cats), averaging probably two drafts a day from the start of the drafting season to the end.
I admit that I’d join Yahoo! leagues, knowing I probably wouldn’t see them through. I became addicted to chasing after perfection. Every time I went into a draft, I’d think, “This is the going to be the one. This will be the perfect team.” Every once in a while I’d feel I had reached perfection, or at least as close as one could get. Then, not knowing what to do with myself, I’d try for even better. After joining all these leagues, I’d look back and know I’d have to spend every waking minute to keep up with them. And for what? The draft was the best part.
In prepping for my many drafts, I've developed more than elementary knowledge of this game, spending many waking hours reading articles from people in the know and forum posts from "the fantasy baseball nation." I find baseball different from other fantasy sports in one way: there are a million different strategies capable of winning a draft.
One common factor in any fantasy baseball strategy is that you are on the look out for value, a term I’ve heard reiterated so often in these circles it’s started to lose meaning, like repeating the same word until it no longer sounds like English.
Where a player goes in a draft determines his draft value, while the stats he produces determine his real value. With there being different stat categories to fill, what you're trying to do is figure out which ones are harder to come by, so you can draft accordingly. Making things even trickier, you have to account for which positions have value, and in which rounds they start running thin.
It's fine to take a Ryan Zimmerman at third base in the eighth round because of the upside, but are you paying too much of a price? Wouldn't it help more to take an undervalued Troy Glaus in the 16th? This is what fantasy baseball is all about—knowing where you can find the best bargains.
Some strategists look to fill certain cats in the beginning of a draft. They determine to themselves what’s more important to anchor their lineup with, speed or power, and they take the players with the best overall value. Others enter leaning toward filling in need positions, such as middle infielders and catchers. Those who do this usually sink to reaching for players with less value when they miss out on the guys they were hoping to draft.
It’s smart to draft for cat value in the early rounds, then try to fill out your roster later. At the beginning of drafts, stud players give you huge numbers and those are where you place premier importance. You can find a middle infielder or catcher later on if those positions have lost value for the time being, but those 30-30 guys are few and far between.
More winning strategy...
1. Get in on the beginning of player runs, not the end — When players at the same position start flying off the board quickly that is known as
a run. What you look for are guys at the top tier of the run.
When a particular position is reached for in a draft and a long run to the end ensues, it’s to your benefit to have started the run. In my rotisserie league with the folks from Fantasy Lounge Sports, I remember the popular consensus in our forum discussions was placing a high value on closers. When the ultimate sin happened and I couldn't make my draft, player rankings had to be set to avoid the dreaded computer picked team. Relying on my elephant's memory, I ranked premier closers higher than usual, knowing to find equal value I’d need to draft the position before people started reaching for them.
And when those middle rounds came, reach they did, left and right. A couple of mentionables were Joakim Soria drafted with the last pick of the ninth round, followed by Todd Jones with the first pick of the tenth. In comparison, the rounds they go in an average Yahoo! draft are 13 and 14 respectively.
The auto pick gave me JJ Putz in the fifth and Takashi Saito in the seventh, the two highest ranked closers last year. In the process, I was handed players at equal value to where they were selected, without the computer having to reach for a closer a few rounds later, where there'd be less value in the pick.
But now I want you to forget all that because I wouldn’t call taking early closers more of a winning strategy than a good example of getting in on runs early. My next piece of advice will show you how much of a flip flopper I am when it comes to picking strategy.
2. Take your closers in the mid to late rounds — Simple fact is relievers pitch less innings than starters, 
so their numbers hold less weight. Jonathan Papelbon may get you a sub 2.00 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP, but he's not going to throw over 70 innings and have more than 100 strike outs. Your average middle round closer, like a Chad Cordero will service you a low 3.00 ERA and a WHIP around 1.30. Each will get you about 40 saves, which is the stat you're really chasing anyway, but the good peripherals (ERA, WHIP) Papelbon brings will most likely be drowned out by other pitchers you have going, especially your high inning starters. Neither will finish with enough strikeouts for the difference to be really worth considering. So what are you getting out of the closer you took seven rounds ahead of Cordero? Peripherals that don't make much of an impact and a few extra K's. It's better to stack up your saves later on, taking guys without magical numbers but pretty good job security, like a Cordero. Which brings me to my next point.
3. Have a plan for which pitching cats to go after — Because pitchers' stats are
too tough to predict from week to week since each throws so few innings, you should try to win only certain
cats.
One winning strategy, which works especially well in rotisserie leagues, is to draft two upper tiered starting pitchers as anchors, then fill out your staff with closers and top relievers. While the solid starters will provide good innings and wins, the assortment of relievers go after three of the five categories, the peripherals (ERA, WHIP) and
saves, with the option of a fourth.
To have the next cat be wins you can stream for favorable starting pitching matchups, and there's a good chance all those relievers will lower
your peripherals enough to still rule those cats.
4. Hitters always first – Like hoarding running backs is common in fantasy football, so has hoarding hitters become in this game. There are a few reasons why:
- Along with putting up sexier stats than pitchers, their numbers are more solo dependent, making their performances easier to predict.
- Pitchers are also the more often injured players, constantly battling arm, shoulder and back problems. In the early rounds you want guaranteed production, which a hitter will more likely provide.
- I know it's kind of cheap to put in (like having the word you're defining in the definition) but...because hitters go early and often, you can pass on the high round pitchers and still find great value in the later rounds.
5. Always look for high risk/high reward players at the end of drafts – This is a cheap way to get ahead.
Instead of taking, for example, good old Garret Anderson in the last round, you should be looking
to add the less known
Billy Butler. While Anderson ended up with better cumulative stats last year and
therefore will be ranked higher than Butler, the youngster will bring you a 99 percent higher rate of return.
Although you will strike out many more times than succeed when drafting sleepers, the risk is so minute it’s not even worth thinking about. There will always be players with similar value to Grandpa Garret on the waiver wire, but the chances of hitting a home run with a young talent like Butler are few and far between.
In conclusion...
If you're out there like I was, doing all these drafts then forgetting about the teams and are afraid to have people call you on it, let 'em. Those public leagues are so barren by mid season it's obvious you're not the only one doing it. So be a little proud of your drafting ambitions. But always remember while you're off chasing perfection, you're also letting down the guys in your league who are trying to make it competitive...and karma's a bitch.
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*Special Thanks to Seth Allingham for schooling me on fantasy baseball strategy, making for a better entry.
