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The Plan for Winning My Basketball League's Playoffs: Phase 1

I enter my fantasy basketball playoffs as the underdog this year, but like the hustlin' Billy Hoyle from "White Men Can't Jump"—I'm feeling so lucky.

Just like Billy tried so hard to dunk, my team gritted out 21 weeks of grueling play to find itself in the second seed of the 16 team Fantasy Lounge Basketball Keeper League. With most of the guys knowing each other  from the forum, the league stays pretty active and competitive. I inherited my team at the beginning of the season, renamed them, drafted a solid supporting cast, and it has become my baby.

In this week's semifinals it's my Lethal Warriors vs. Radar's Pointweilers 

Being the second seed, I had a first round bye in the six team playoff bracket. I don't have the most talented team by any means. And it's not as firmly rooted in the pretty stat of FG% as I'd let on before (bottom third of the league...shame on me for embellishing).

I have come to realize Radar's team would have whooped me if we were in a roto league, being better in almost every statistical category. Normally in this case, I'd punt turnovers and stream to go after a cheep win, but I'm trying not to be known as "that guy." Instead I've added four players with four game schedules this week. Since Radar has so steadily outdone my team this year,  it's hard to focus on one category, so I've picked up guys I predict will have the best overall value.

Lethal Warriors - after the moves (in blue)

Javaris Crittenton (4 games)
Daequan Cook (4 games)
Travis Diener (4 games)
Paul Pierce (3 games)
Josh Powell (4 games)
Tim Duncan (3 games)
Rasheed Wallace (3 games)
Samuel Dalembert (3 games)
Leandro Barbosa (4 games)
Jared Dudley (4 games)
Steve Blake (3 games)
Jamal Crawford (3 games)
Louis Williams (3 games)
Thaddeus Young (3 games)

Pointweilers (red for injured) 

Devin Harris (3 games)
Vince Carter (3 games)
Cuttino Mobley (4 games)
Anthony Parker (4 games)
Nick Collison (3 games)
Jamario Moon (4 games)
Brendan Haywood (4 games)
Emeka Okafor (4 games)
Baron Davis (4 games)
Brandon Bass (4 games)
Beno Udrih (4 games)
Dikembe Mutombo (4 games)
Joel Przybilla (3 games)
Richard Hamilton (3 games)

Off the bat I'm a little behind because his team plays 51 games and mine plays only 48. In addition, most of my four game players are my weakest. Four of my five keepers play three games, while two of his top three players (Baron and Okafor) play four games.

As you can see, my team is full of waiver wire talent, players whom most wouldn't touch in a 12 team league. The adds I've made are for no-name young guys who have shown progression in the late parts of the season, ranging from the last week to the last six weeks.

Unquestionably my love for this team, having put in the work all season, gives me a slight advantage.  And when TNT Thursday hits, having a better idea of how things are going to shake out, I'll adjust my roster accordingly. Only seven guys on my team are safe this week. Everyone else is disposable, and I'm o' so hungry to reach the finals and claim bragging rights in my league.

To Be Continued...

Keys to a Good Baseball Draft: The Honesty Hook

You know, I had a fancy idea about how I was going to hook you into this story. My plan was to declare that fantasy baseball was like a gateway drug, because it's what got me hooked on fantasy sports. Then hoping to dazzle, I would throw out some facts about the history of baseball, some arcane statistics, and finish by touching on the birth of the nation wide addiction to fantasy sports.

Sounds pretty good, right? Only problem is throwing out pretentious facts wouldn't inspire the right message, so I will spare you any attempt at eloquence and replace it with the truth.

I bring a unique perspective to fantasy baseball, in that I represent a minority that is reluctant to be exposed:

The draft addict.

I probably did some 200 odd fantasy baseball drafts between the 2003 and 2005 seasons. In 2004, I managed to tie myself to over 100 leagues (always standard 5x5 cats), averaging probably two drafts a day from the start of the drafting season to the end.

I admit that I’d join Yahoo! leagues, knowing I probably wouldn’t see them through. I became addicted to chasing after perfection. Every time I went into a draft, I’d think, “This is the going to be the one. This will be the perfect team.” Every once in a while I’d feel I had reached perfection, or at least as close as one could get. Then, not knowing what to do with myself, I’d try for even better. After joining all these leagues, I’d look back and know I’d have to spend every waking minute to keep up with them. And for what? The draft was the best part.

In prepping for my many drafts, I've developed more than elementary knowledge of this game, spending many waking hours reading articles from people in the know and forum posts from "the fantasy baseball nation." I find baseball different from other fantasy sports in one way: there are a million different strategies capable of winning a draft.

One common factor in any fantasy baseball strategy is that you are on the look out for value, a term I’ve heard reiterated so often in these circles it’s started to lose meaning, like repeating the same word until it no longer sounds like English.

Where a player goes in a draft determines his draft value, while the stats he produces determine his real value. With there being different stat categories to fill, what you're trying to do is figure out which ones are harder to come by, so you can draft accordingly. Making things even trickier, you have to account for which positions have value, and in which rounds they start running thin.

It's fine to take a Ryan Zimmerman at third base in the eighth round because of the upside, but are you paying too much of a price? Wouldn't it help more to take an undervalued Troy Glaus in the 16th? This is what fantasy baseball is all about—knowing where you can find the best bargains.

Some strategists look to fill certain cats in the beginning of a draft. They determine to themselves what’s more important to anchor their lineup with, speed or power, and they take the players with the best overall value. Others enter leaning toward filling in need positions, such as middle infielders and catchers. Those who do this usually sink to reaching for players with less value when they miss out on the guys they were hoping to draft.

It’s smart to draft for cat value in the early rounds, then try to fill out your roster later. At the beginning of drafts, stud players give you huge numbers and those are where you place premier importance. You can find a middle infielder or catcher later on if those positions have lost value for the time being, but those 30-30 guys are few and far between.

More winning strategy...

1. Get in on the beginning of player runs, not the end — When players at the same position start flying off the board quickly that is known as a run. What you look for are guys at the top tier of the run.

When a particular position is reached for in a draft and a long run to the end ensues, it’s to your benefit to have started the run. In my rotisserie league with the folks from Fantasy Lounge Sports, I remember the popular consensus in our forum discussions was placing a high value on closers. When the ultimate sin happened and I couldn't make my draft, player rankings had to be set to avoid the dreaded computer picked team. Relying on my elephant's memory, I ranked premier closers higher than usual, knowing to find equal value I’d need to draft the position before people started reaching for them.

And when those middle rounds came, reach they did, left and right. A couple of mentionables were Joakim Soria drafted with the last pick of the ninth round, followed by Todd Jones with the first pick of the tenth. In comparison, the rounds they go in an average Yahoo! draft are 13 and 14 respectively.   

The auto pick gave me JJ Putz in the fifth and Takashi Saito in the seventh, the two highest ranked closers last year. In the process, I was handed players at equal value to where they were selected, without the computer having to reach for a closer a few rounds later, where there'd be less value in the pick.

But now I want you to forget all that because I wouldn’t call taking early closers more of a winning strategy than a good example of getting in on runs early. My next piece of advice will show you how much of a flip flopper I am when it comes to picking strategy.

2. Take your closers in the mid to late rounds — Simple fact is relievers pitch less innings than starters, so their numbers hold less weight. Jonathan Papelbon may get you a sub 2.00 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP, but he's not going to throw over 70 innings and have more than 100 strike outs. Your average middle round closer, like a Chad Cordero will service you a low 3.00 ERA and a WHIP around 1.30. Each will get you about 40 saves, which is the stat you're really chasing anyway, but the good peripherals (ERA, WHIP) Papelbon brings will most likely be drowned out by other pitchers you have going, especially your high inning starters. Neither will finish with enough strikeouts for the difference to be really worth considering. So what are you getting out of the closer you took seven rounds ahead of Cordero? Peripherals that don't make much of an impact and a few extra K's. It's better to stack up your saves later on, taking guys without magical numbers but pretty good job security, like a Cordero. Which brings me to my next point.

3. Have a plan for which pitching cats to go after — Because pitchers' stats are too tough to predict from week to week since each throws so few innings, you should try to win only certain cats.

One winning strategy, which works especially well in rotisserie leagues, is to draft two upper tiered starting pitchers as anchors, then fill out your staff with closers and top relievers. While the solid starters will provide good innings and wins, the assortment of relievers go after three of the five categories, the peripherals (ERA, WHIP) and saves, with the option of a fourth.

To have the next cat be wins you can stream for favorable starting pitching matchups, and there's a good chance all those relievers will lower your peripherals enough to still rule those cats.

4. Hitters always first – Like hoarding running backs is common in fantasy football, so has hoarding hitters become in this game. There are a few reasons why:

• Along with putting up sexier stats than pitchers, their numbers are more solo dependent, making their performances easier to predict.
  
• Pitchers are also the more often injured players, constantly battling arm, shoulder and back problems. In the early rounds you want guaranteed production, which a hitter will more likely provide.
• I know it's kind of cheap to put in (like having the word you're defining in the definition) but...because hitters go early and often, you can pass on the high round pitchers and still find great value in the later rounds.

5. Always look for high risk/high reward players at the end of drafts – This is a cheap way to get ahead. Instead of taking, for example, good old Garret Anderson in the last round, you should be looking to add the less known Billy Butler. While Anderson ended up with better cumulative stats last year and therefore will be ranked higher than Butler, the youngster will bring you a 99 percent higher rate of return.

Although you will strike out many more times than succeed when drafting sleepers, the risk is so minute it’s not even worth thinking about. There will always be players with similar value to Grandpa Garret on the waiver wire, but the chances of hitting a home run with a young talent like Butler are few and far between.

In conclusion...

If you're out there like I was, doing all these drafts then forgetting about the teams and are afraid to have people call you on it, let 'em. Those public leagues are so barren by mid season it's obvious you're not the only one doing it. So be a little proud of your drafting ambitions. But always remember while you're off chasing perfection, you're also letting down the guys in your league who are trying to make it competitive...and karma's a bitch.
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*Special Thanks to Seth Allingham for schooling me on fantasy baseball strategy, making for a better entry.

The Keys to a Good Draft: Football

     Few things surpass waking up in the morning to a big draft. After the grogginess subsides and that first moment of joy has passed, I get to thinking about the task ahead. For success in this game you need the right strategy and the patience to prepare. What follows is the first of a weekly three part series, briefly covering the three majors—football, baseball and basketball—in which I bring you smart strategies to be worked towards when prepping for a big draft.

This week it's back to the gridiron.

1. Football drafts are no different from any other sport in that you need to do your research. There is no supplement for knowing more than the opponent. Heading into your first draft of the season can be tough when you're not as prepared as you'd like to be. Too much time away from the game, spent with other fantasy sports and that little thing called reality, can cut your legs out from under you. You lose your edge and ability to make quick decisions, and you even lose a bit of your strategy. Here are some good things to know when heading into your draft:

• Who's been injured in the offseason — You need to know who's out, for how long and with what type of injury. If you don't do this first step, you're setting a poor tone for the rest.

• Who's changed teams — This knowledge goes hand in hand with knowing injuries. When players switch teams they usually step into different roles, and the players left behind get new roles too. When Dominic Rhodes headed for Oakland in '06, Joseph Addai vaulted to a top fantasy option in Indianapolis, while Rhodes saw a bit of a decrease in value, heading from a time share with a good offense to a time share with a bad one. Many owners got what they were looking for out of Kevin Curtis last year. In his change from the third option in St. Louis to option 1A in Philly, White Lightning had moved far up on people's draft boards, and to few people's surprise his numbers improved drastically.

• Which running backs are likely to break out — Those banking on Marshawn Lynch last year were certainly left satisfied. But those Nostradamuses, like Yahoo! columnist Brandon Funston, who saw Adrian Peterson's monster season coming out of nowhere were left ecstatic. All I heard on my favorite site was Chester Taylor hype. Everyone was so caught up in the situation of the time share and Chester's solid season in '06, they didn't see pure talent winning out. As Peterson proved, it's favorable to have knowledge of the new guard as well as the old. Knowing when to seperate the hype from the truth comes in handy when knowing where to rate youngsters entering new situations. Many were banking on Cedric Benson coming into his own last season. But instead of being the work horse everyone thought he would be, he looked more like he was ready to be put out to stud.

• What teams had coaching changes and when to buy or sell — New coaches bring new playbooks and different strategy, which carries over to players getting new roles and different results. But as shown in Atlanta last season, this change is hard to rely on. Jerious Norwood was a young guy people thought the coaching change to Bobby Petrino would benefit. Many were saying Norwood was going to take over as the primary back for the aging Warrick Dunn. After all he ended strongly the year before and their was the factor that Petrino preferred bigger backs. Well apparently he wasn't big enough. And when it came to choosing between the two undersized backs, Petrino took the aging light weight and rushed him more than twice as much as Norwood to the chagrin of many.
  

• Which young recievers have finally gotten their heads out of the playbook and into the game — If you develop more than a layperson's knowledge of fantasy football, you'll hear the myth of the third year reciever. It's simply that by the third season of an NFL wideout's career they are ready to excel into what they are going to become: boom or bust. Braylon Edwards' '07 sesaon is the perfect example. This guy was the number 3 overall pick in the '05 draft. He was supposed to be a special player, heads and shoulders above any other receiver coming into the league that year. He started off solid enough. Between his first and second seasons he doubled his catch total to 61 and his TD total to 6 while bumping his receiving yards up by more than a third to make an 880 total. In his third season, he absolutely erupted, posting 80 catches, nearly 1,300 yards and 16 TD's. If you bought on this guy in the 6th round, you most likely found yourself a bargain that walked you right into your fantasy league's playoffs.

• What vets are entering the twilights of their careers — When an aging running back gets ready to step aside, a youngster with fresh legs is usually waiting in the wings. When an elderly quarterback suffers a lengthy injury, there often happen to be unknown guys who are able to fill their shoes. So you don't miss any of the future Larry Johnsons or Tom Bradys out there, always be ready to pounce when a crucial cog in a team's engine is replaced by a younger part.
  

2. Take your running backs early and often. Like many, I have trouble sticking to this rule. But it is an important one to follow because while being your most valuable commodities, the most oft-injured players on a fantasy football team will be running backs. When Steven Jackson went down at the beginning of last season it hurt a lot of people who were banking on him to give them great production. They needed to have good backup running backs to survive that hit so early on.

    With the idea of hoarding backs the most popular strategy around, and the need for a team to fill two starting slots with only so many useful options, pickings get slim toward the middle rounds. QB's and wideouts have less than equal value because they come in more abundance. Two thirds of the leagues quarterbacks are sufficient enough to start, needing to fill only one slot. And on each NFL team there are generally up to three decent wide receiver options with a total of three fantasy slots to fill. By the end of the season Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will probably score more points, but LaDanian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook will win more championships.

3.Make kickers and defenses your last two picks. This is a standard part to any draft I do. Those who get antsy and reach for these are statisically less likely to succeed. A kicker scores a lot of points but their performances are hard to predict from week to week, let alone over a full season. On the other side of the ball,  you have examples of Baltimore in '06 and San Diego and Chicago in '07; the list goes on and on of defense/special teams people have reached for in the draft only to come up short. For some teams like the Chargers, they're a little slow out of the gate and people throw them back into free agency, wasting their 9th or 10th round pick.

Instead of taking a Chicago in the middle of the draft, these defense-reachers should have taken a chance on a third or fourth running back, and if they were lucky could have found an undervalued Adrian Peterson. That way when their top pick Laurence Maroney was a bust, their fantasy season wouldn't have been over.

Changing of the Guard

In most fantasy basketball leagues, around this time of year managers should be on the look out for free agents who are going to see increased minutes, which usually comes in the form of injury fill-ins and newly traded players. But the real place they should be investigating is young players whose roles are about to change. 

Jamario Moon, Andray Blache, Al Thornton, Josh Boone, Thaddeus Young, Joakim Noah.

These are guys whose roles have already changed at some point over the year purely because they are growing and maturing and finding their niche in the NBA. They weren't given minutes to fill in, but more so that they could progress in the league. Around this time of year, the playoff scenario is shaking itself out, the trade deadline has already passed and most of the worthy vets on poor teams have either been traded or had their contracts bought out. What you're going to see in fantasy is increased minutes for the young guys on weak teams whom people want to test and see what they can do.

So who are the next young guys to make the leap in the NBA and what type of fantasy value will they offer?

Jared Dudley — With Gerald Wallace going down recently, Dudley has revieved a chance at big minutes,  and has shown to be a chip off the old block. Like Wallace his peripheral stats (STL, BLK) and rebounds are a nice boost to any fantasy team in need. In the first six games of March he has approximate per game averages of 2 STL, 1 BLK, and 8 REB. Now although he is an injury fill in, with the combination of Dudley's improved play, the Bobcats actually winning of late, and his replacement's injury history, even after G-Wall comes back I'd look for Dudley to still receive a base of 25 minutes/game.

Nick Young — This USC kid is starting to put up the numbers fantasy owners expected from him at the beginning of the season. In the first five games of March, Young is posting impressive per game averages of 14 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST, 1 STL and 1 trey. With the Wiz fighting for a playoff spot and the returns of Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler imminent, it's safe to say you can temper your expectations on this one. But it's nice to see this youngster coming into his own, while giving us all a taste of what we can expect next season.

Spencer Hawes — In deeper leagues he's becoming a viable option. MIke Bibby went to the Hawks and took 35 minutes/ game with him, and Ron Artest is constantly in and out of the lineup. With the Kings safely out of the playoff picture, Hawes will start seeing burn. From here on out I'd look for nightly averages of 20 minutes, 7 points, 7 rebounds and 2+ blocks.

Julian Wright — Although he is not on a bad team, Julian is the exception to the rule. This high-flyer was a near lottery pick in this year's draft and because of what the experts were saying, I had big expectations. Only to be disappointed when New Orleans found themeselves fighting for the best record in the league with Julian riding the pine. But times have changed and in his first four games in March, Julian has recieved 25 min/game, putting up approximate per game averages of 12 points, 6 boards and 62% on his field goals. David West or not, he's going to see decent burn from here on out.

Late Season Waiver Wire Pickups: Finding Daequan

The key to fantasy success is activity. Managers who spend more time on their teams win more games. Time devoted breeds success in fantasy more so than in real life.  Unless you're in a high stakes money league where everyone is super-active, you'll typically find  some managers working harder than others. A good way to gauge a manager's activity is by checking next to their team's win-loss record for how many moves they've made during the season. Generally the managers with the most moves will be closest to the top. Dedication breeds success, and if a team is inactive in a competitive league, regardless of how good their draft was, they'll be cellar dwellers.

In a given fantasy season, no matter the sport, I will always have a favorite team. I'll be in at least a few leagues but always end up giving one team much more attention than the others. I'm sure just like there are  many out there with only one true passion, there are those out there with only one true team.

My passion right now lies in my 16 team Yahoo! basketball league. It's a smart league with a lot of fantasy baseball players, and while everyone is busy prepping for the new baseball season, I quietly go about my business, checking the waiver wire 3 - 4 times a week, hoping to find a hidden gem. To have success in a league as deep as mine, virtually every team has to at least periodically search the wire.

But what are we searching for?

I look for two types of players: long term and short term, the latter more frequently this time of year.

However, in the beginning of the season, long term players have equal if not better value. These guys you plan to keep for more than a week or two, like the man I settled on two months ago: Mo Evans. In Mo, I found someone with role security who gave me consistently solid stats. How I found Mo was I ran a free agent search for average stats over the last month and saw him near the top of the players listed. Investigating further I found out he was putting up solid stats, including nearly 1 steal/game over the last handful of games. It turns out, Mo was just traded to the Magic where he secured a starting job and  20 - 25 min/game. Combining my newfound knowledge of his recent stats with what I'd seen in the frequent Lakers games on TNT, I'd formed a pretty good idea of what kind of fantasy production I could get out Old Mo in his new situation.

But recently two months had passed and Mo's numbers had grown stale. Like many before him he was about to fall victim to the Austin Brown chopping block purely because there were better short term options out there.

Enter Daequan Cook.

If you're smart, this time of year you're hunting for the Daequan Cooks out there because it's going on playoff time, in fantasy and reality, and it's prudent to get 'em while they're hot. Finding hot players is as simple as running a free agent search for average stats over the last week.

I kind of fell ass backwards into Daequan, to tell you the truth, all from making a small sacrifice whose name was Mo. Like many other young studs without job security, Daequan was on my watch list. Taking a break from my long and arduous news writing class, I checked this list and noticed out of the blue Daequan had thrown up a 20 point game. Searching deeper I found that over the last few games Daequan had been getting regularly huge minutes. Then memory clicked in and I thought,  "Oh yeah, Dwyane Wade's out. No wonder he's getting burn. He'll be back on the bench in a few games. Might want to pass on this one."

...But then more thoughts entered: "What the hey, Evans' numbers I can find in plenty of guys out on the wire this time of year. Strike while the iron's hot." And strike I did, only to find when I got home that Wade's injury had knocked him out for the season. In fantasy, injuries to stars are huge. And while I don't condone it, some will even celebrate them. When a star goes down you can guarantee at least one or two guys no one had ever thought of using will put up great stats out of left field. In this case, now I've got Daequan, who looks to be Wade's replacement in the starting line up and will probably post 30 - 35 minutes/night. This all because I was tired of old Mo and willing to take a semi-risk, from which I've concluded late season pickups can be huge.

The Art of Winning

I once only knew the art of winning ugly in Yahoo! fantasy basketball. I'd take the standard 9 categories and try to win the easiest ones. Nice and simple. I'm in, I'm out, minimal body count and it's on to next week. But only recently have I truly mastered the art of winning pretty.

My latest fantasy challenge has come with the good people of Fantasy Lounge Sports.

To give you a little background, it's a 16 team H2H league with 14 player rosters. It's also a five player keeper, meaning at the beginning of each season teams will choose the five players they want to carry over from last year.

In order to have a chance, before the draft I had to know what stats I had in my five keeper players and what I needed from the other nine. Since all stats have the same value, I had to differentiate between the pretty from the ugly.

In a standard league, you'll have your...

Positive cumulative stats: 3PTM, PTS, REB, AST, ST, BLK (The Ugly)

Non-cumulative stats: FG%, FT% (The Pretty)

One negative stat: TO (Don't let the "negative" fool you, it's still Pretty)

As you'll notice, the most stats to be won are ugly stats, hence the art of winning ugly. 

Ugly stats are valuable because they are the most consistent stats you will find on a weekly basis. You can count on players who give you these stats in a three or four game week more so than your pretty stat players, whose numbers are most valuable when taken over a span of more than a few games.

What you'll often find in your standard league is a few managers who are very active,  your casual managers who check in once or twice a week to adjust lineups and browse the waiver wire, and your inactive managers (aka dead managers).

In these leagues you'll commonly run into a stream manager. A streamer is a manager who adds players from the FA pool for the usual purpose of boosting their cumulative stats. In almost all leagues you'll find at least one guy scouring the waiver wire for players. I like to call this person the wire hog. The hog is a force to be reckoned with, the guy you hate to face come playoff time. When one manager sets out to win just ugly stats, they're making a stand. They're the blue-collar worker who isn't trying to be pretty, just flat out trying to win. Because of this stand, you know you're gonna be in a dogfight for six out of the nine categories available.

I'm successful in my little league  because my team has a firm foundation in the pretty stats (good percentages + low turnovers). This assures me that regardless of who I face, I have a chance to win all 9 cats. And if I run into my wire hog needing a win, all I have to do is rotate out my 3 - 5 worst players on the wire on game days. In this match up, I have a pretty good chance to win the pretty stats and if healthy will be at the least competitive in the ugly ones.

The best part about winning pretty is I don't have to scour the wire on a daily basis. I also have the versatility to match up to all sorts of teams. Versatility is how I took my middle of the pack inherited team (keepers: Tim Duncan, Paul Pierce, Rasheed Wallace, Samuel Dalembert, Leandro Barbosa) and am a game and a half behind the top team, which is stacked.

Come playoff time, when it's balls to the walls,  I know I've got a solid enough foundation to have the luxury of streaming out players and piling on the ugly stats without giving too much away.