Before I realized that drafts are different for each sport and grouping them as a whole would be sort of silly, my plan was to take my collected draft knowledge and present you with some concrete ideas that could be carried into any draft. That was over a month ago. So with this plan in the back of my mind all along, I bring to you the concept that spawned the series "Keys to the Draft."
1. The importance of position — The middle and end positions can be defined most clearly and therefore are the best examples to be used in this case.
A Yahoo! snake draft (last pick in the first round has first pick in the second round, etc.) can be anywhere from four to 20 players long. This advice will be most helpful in situations where there are 12 or more. In such scenarios there are distinct differences between being in the middle or on the end of the snake, but I wouldn't say there is a definitive advantage to either one. Advantages change from year to year in different sports. Those years in which there is a clear cut number one overall player, like the 2008 version of
Alex Rodriguez, and there is some value to be had in the late second/early third round turn in your typical
12 person draft, like B.J. Upton, it definitely helps to have the first overall pick (which is on the end, of course).
- The ends often start the runs — As I've explained in the baseball strategy post, a run is when players of the same position start flying off the board in bunches. This is how managers on the end develop a certain mentality: Say you join a typical 20 person draft from the list of available Yahoo! custom leagues and have the 20th pick. Sadly but surely you're only going to draft about every 20 minutes. Those two picks are almost like having one because no one stands in between. You won't need to adjust for another manager's pick. More so than others, you're going to want to place more value on a player's position, his cat production and not just be on the look out for pure value. A lot of your picks will be spent strictly on filling needs. Knowing that you won't have a chance at your next player for another 38 selections, you may start to reach to fill whatever holes you're likely to encounter later on. This is how runs get started. For example, when it comes to closers typically there is a top tier taken within the first 60 picks. For all the rest, the drafters have an unspoken understanding that anyone taken from a lower tier could ignite a run. Now hypothetically there's this guy at the end of the snake with pick 60 who really likes closers. Understandably to us, but maybe not to him, all the premier stoppers are gone. If he doesn't like the thought of 38 more picks between him and his next chance at a closer, he's going to reach early. But a few picks later another manager reaches because the player they really wanted was taken by the original reacher, and they too desire a good closer. It's easy to see how the ball gets rolling.
- Folks in the middle catch the runs — One leg up for those in the middle is that it's difficult for runs to escape them. No matter how long a draft, being in the middle usually means you can't go on vacation between picks. You need to stay pretty attentive. In your hyper-alert state, you will see what runs are potentially starting and can begin planning out which guys you're hoping to catch in the middle. There are fewer picks between you and the other managers so you've got more room for error to pick for position while also having more leeway to draft for pure value.
2. Trapping — Some would just call this smart drafting, but I've named this strategy and I think it's one that everyone should know. This is where the people on the end really get screwed.
Usually managers second or third from the end have the advantage of trapping the manager(s) on the very end. Trapping is employed when these near-enders are in need of a certain player position.
An easy example is if you're in a baseball draft, needing a catcher, and you're the third pick from the end. Instead of just taking a catcher on the way up, you want to check if the managers behind you each have one because once the snake gets behind you, there will be four more picks before you get another shot. If each of the other two have catchers, you want go ahead and take the next guy on your board and avoid taking a catcher until the snake is on its way back down. Odds are the two other managers won't take another catcher but instead make you miss out on that other player you really wanted.
The above example is only the most clear-cut version of trapping. There are more tricky scenarios in football and basketball drafts in which there are fewer selections to be made. Then, as Mike McD from Rounders would say, it's all about what's in your guts. Will the other manager go for that fourth receiver? Will he reach for a third center? This is when you need to know your priorities and where to place your value.
My friends and I use this strategy on one another and other unfortunate managers. It's just a nice little way to get ahead.
Looks like a few NBA executives should have taken a look at this the other day...
Posted by: Matthew Kimel | July 02, 2008 at 10:46 PM