By Austin Brown
Like cutting backdoor for an open layup, a basketball draft is as easy as it gets in the world of major fantasy sports drafting. For me, compared to a baseball draft, doing well involves little more than being able to stay awake for an hour and finding a comfortable place on the couch. Consider these tips so you can field a winner before you try drafting your all white guys squad, who will surely not sniff a fantasy title. With no further adieu, it's Andris Beidrins with the 12th overall pick (cough, cough). Actually it's my keys for winning your draft.
1. Know the difference between being in a Rotisserie vs. a Head to Head League — It's basic knowledge that rotisserie (roto) leagues limit squads to a maximum of 82 games played per position, meaning when players get injured it hurts teams less than in head to head (H2H) leagues where there is no limit to the amount of games a team can play. Managers can plug players in off the bench and the other teams in the league won't get the advantage of playing more games. On top of that, in roto stats are accumulated over an entire season, making it less important to have players healthy at
certain times. Right now in my H2H league, Rasheed Wallace is taking
some time off to rest. Only problem for me is this is coming at playoff time, and each game he sits I lose stats I desperately need.
Speaking of fantasy playoffs, a useful strategy when prepping
for your H2H draft is to check down the road for playoff schedules. If you go on BasketballMonster.com (BBM) and punch in "Schedule Grid" you can see how many games your desired player is playing during each crucial week of the fantasy
basketball playoffs (weeks 22 - 24). Going even further, you could take
a look at the "Ease Rankings" for the previous year to see which guys might have
harder fantasy playoff matchups. These rankings show you how difficult it is for players to post stats
against certain teams. It goes as far as telling you which positions
have the most success and listing rankings for how hard it is to come by individual stats. At the risk of sounding like a promo, the best part is it's all free.
In a roto league, guys like Shane Battier or Josh Childress will contribute in all nine categories over an entire season which gives them more value. They won't give you numbers that will have you in wonders, but they don't produce the negative stats that can accumulate over an entire season to kill you. To use a track analogy, be aware that in H2H you want to have sprinters, but in roto you find more value in marathon runners, like a Battier or a Childress.
In a H2H league, it can make sense to punt one or two
categories, but this is not recommended in roto leagues, where having
1's in two cats will certainly sink your chances. Most people in H2H leagues will chose to punt turnovers because the more guys you play the higher your TO numbers will be, and you're typically trying to play as many guys as possible. Also less importance can be placed on FT% because it's very
unpredictable from week to week. No matter how good your team is in
this stat, you will still sometimes lose to teams you should beat.
So who's the perfect player to use as an example here?
...look, it's Superman to the rescue.
Dwight Howard makes a bigger impact that any other player changing
from a roto to a H2H league. With his three plus turnovers per game, he is
near the top of the league, and from the center position no less. He
also has the most negative impact a player could have on a team's FT%.
Shooting over 11 per game at just under 60 percent. But if you take TO's and FT% out of the equation, Dwight vaults to the third most valuable player in fantasy basketball. When you put
those two stats back in, he plummets to number 74.
In a H2H league, you're looking for consistency. Going into a draft, it's important to know which stats are more or less
consistent on a weekly basis. Typically guys who are big scorers don't have off weeks. But a high steals guy, like Ron Artest, will have some weeks where he
has two steals and some weeks where he has 12.
2. Your team must have three serviceable centers — Being the weakest spot to find talent and not only needing one but
two, you should have at least one decent backup. This strategy is a must because in fantasy basketball two positions and no backup is blasphemy. All the other positions will typically fill up quickly in a draft, but
most teams are weak at center, which is why you want to be strong. And
nine times out of ten you get that strength in the draft.
I go for value in any draft, but I like it when a good center falls to me within the first four rounds, one that can establish my team in FG%, REBs, BLKs, and can chip in with double digit points. That's my perfect center. But you need two more who are going to stick it out through the season.
This year, Andrew Bynum would have been the ideal third center. Going into the season, he had supreme upside and wasn't being drafted until
the double digit rounds. Despite the injury he suffered midway through the season, his averages rank him as the 27th best player in fantasy to date, normally producing over a double-double (10+ points and 10+ rebounds), with two blocks and the second highest FG% in the league. Al Horford would have been a great
pickup as well, lasting to the last round or two of most drafts. He averages nearly a double-double, with one block and one steal. These
two examples should tell you that opportunity as well as upside are
what you hope to find in your backup center.
3. Be ready to make compensations — If your first round pick hurts you in certain areas, be ready to draft guys who can take up the slack. Going into this season, drafting LeBron James as your first overall pick over Shawn Marion was fine, but the difference was night and day.
Being the best across the board contributor probably in fantasy basketball history, Marion wouldn't hurt you in any cats and wouldn't leave you lacking in any either. You could go about taking your next pick pretty much as if nothing happened,
which is a very nice luxury.
On the other hand, spending your first round pick on Bron Bron means you were really hurting in two categories—FT% and TO's. Here you needed to make up the difference in the ensuing picks with high FT%, low turnover guys preferably at the wing position, like a Kevin Martin or Rashard Lewis. Ideally you want your assistance to come from the same position that the guy your compensating for plays to make for a more balanced team.
The earlier you adjust, the less help you'll need, meaning one or two guys can pull you out of your hole. Get into the later rounds and you'll need to find three or four guys to stay afloat.
4. Know which stats to draft for and where to place your value — Generally, there are certain stats you can only draft and won't find in free agency.
Typically, if you want a guy who's going to average more than 15 points per game, you need to draft him. But if you're looking for someone to dish you five or six assists, you can find him on the waiver wire.
You won't find guards who can score and shoot high percentages on the wire. Neither will you find big men who can average you a double-double.
What you'll typically find are guys who help in certain areas but hurt in others. Like mixes of guys with high 3 PTM and low FG% or the opposite. Or high blocks/rebounds and low FT% or vica versa.
So don't go into the season needing to find new hidden gems, like the previously undrafted Jose Calderon or Monta Ellis, on the wire. You typically have to draft for those kinds of stats.
5. Do the research and anticipate performances — There will always be experts pulling you one way or the other when you're looking to draft a first round pick. But try real hard to resist the temptation of having someone else make your pick for you. Instead, create your own formula for judging players. Knowing the
game pretty well, I find it helpful to watch guys play, or at least watch highlights, to scout fantasy potential. Anytime you see guys who are all over the court and involved in every play (ala Andre Iguodala or Josh Smith), you should think, this is who I want.
It's important to know:
- Who's undervalued because they're coming off of a sub par year — e.g. Kobe Bryant in '06.
- Who's undervalued because they're coming back from injury — Ask yourself: What type of injury did he suffer? How long will he be out? Past the All Star Break? You can even go as far as playing doctor online and find out how quickly it takes to heal from certain injuries.
- Which young guys are going to break out — A lot of this has to do with an opportunity for playing time. Sometimes trades have been made to create vacancies. Or new coaches are been brought in, who either favor veterans or favor youth. Also look for which young guys finished strong last year—check out Pre All Star/Post All Star, as well as month to month split stats.
6. Know the max positions you want — On your standard 13
player Yahoo! team, along with at least the three centers, you also
want no more than four point guards (I like to shoot for three), no
more than five guards total, and at least five PF/C's. Fill out the
rest with SG/SF's and you'll be set. This just means that you should
never have to sit guys because you're overstocked at the position. And
your team will play more games because you're not understocked at any
position.
You'll find these rules hard to stick by, but if you keep them in mind at the outset your team will be all the better for it.
7. Keep percentages in the back of your mind — Before a draft it helps to weigh the volume of shots each player takes from the field and free throw line against their percentages. The only way I go about doing this (until someone shows me a better one) is to put FG% and FT% individually into BBM to compare values. The Mendoza Line for percentages is typically FG 45% and FT 78%. At particular positions, guards go FG 44% and FT 80%, whereas big men go FG 50% and FT 75%.
Being the most difficult stats to come by, winning teams usually have a nice footing in the percentages.
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*Special thanks to nebgib5 from the Fantasy Cafe, along with a number of other Cafe members for contributing their ideas.
Alex Rodriguez, and there is some value to be had in the late second/early third round turn in your typical
12 person draft, like B.J. Upton, it definitely helps to have the first overall pick (which is on the end, of course). 
