(Side note: this article will be part of the Fantasy Lounge Draft Kit coming out very soon)
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In no other fantasy sport does the amount of game time a player receives have such a direct impact on their fantasy production. But in a league whose players display such a wide range of talent, it is so easy to forget that when considering whom to draft in a fantasy basketball league, a player’s ability comes second behind their opportunity.
Coaching changes, trades, draft picks, off-season injuries, splits, progression, and now the trendy phenomenon of European NBA outsourcing. These are the things you need to consider when hunting for sleepers. Luckily for those of you who’ve chosen to read this article, I have taken the time out of my increasingly busy schedule to do some of that homework for you. So sit back, relax and enjoy the always-entertaining guesswork that fuels a fantasy sleepers' article.
*Players are ranked in order from highest to lowest of where I expect they will go in fantasy drafts this season
Al Thornton (F – LAC)
Take a look at the Clippers’ roster heading into the ’08 season and you’ll get the feeling that Thornton is in line to see a whole lot of burn. After the All Star Break last season Thornton stepped into a starting role and saw his numbers absolutely spike. In 32 games he averaged over 34 minutes to go along with 16 points, 5.7 rebounds, 0.7 3s, 0.7 steals and 0.8 blocks. Those last few numbers are a strong indicator that soon enough he could enter the elite 1+ blk/stl/3 club
John Salmons / Francisco Garcia (GF – Sac)
By trading Ron Artest for a rookie wildcard the Kings are tapping into the underutilized resources that were
their pair of bench warming wing players. The team was made aware of their value last season when each
were given a chance at big minutes due to the injuries of Artest and starting SG Kevin Martin. As starters they each averaged over 36 minutes per game and far out produced their current draft positions, while being top notched ball hawks in the process (1.6 and 1.7 SPG respectively). One pause for concern is that each of their numbers was stronger as starting guards than forwards, but still sleeper worthy nonetheless. In drafts this year, you can expect each to be picked in close proximity to the eighth round, with Salmons going earlier because he’s likely to start.
Beno Udrih (PG – Sac)
Staying in Sactown, Udrih has to be considered a sleeper this season not because of his age (26), but because of what he did last season when given the opportunity at considerable minutes for the first time in his career. Putting this experience under his belt will only make him stronger going into next year. Given the Kings lack of depth at point guard and that in 51 games as a starter Udrih averaged over 35 minutes, 14.4 points, 5 assists, nearly a steal and a three per game, to go along with great percentages, this international sensation becomes a lock to outperform his draft value.
Marvin Williams (GF – Atl)
The 2005 second overall pick has to reach his potential sometime, right? Heading into what should be his prime years, Williams’ fantasy prospects have been given a solid boost by the departure of Josh Childress to Greece. The former Tarheel’s numbers improved nicely from year two to year three, however, not drastically. Bottom line is Williams was a pick based on potential from day one, and this year he is in prime position to realize it. Considering nothing else he is worthy of the sleeper title heading into this season.
Ramon Sessions (PG – Mil)
Even before the Mo Williams trade Sessions was considered a sleeper to many. Now with the move he becomes a must-grab in the later rounds. Last season, as a rookie, he missed a majority of the year with a broken hand. When finally given a chance he started putting up solid numbers until Mo Williams went down for the last seven games of the season, at which point his numbers became absolutely ridiculous. In those games he averaged over 42 minutes, 13 points, 13 assists, 1.7 steals, but 3.6 TO, as well. In return for Williams the Bucks received a solid veteran point guard in Luke Ridnour who will be Sessions primary competition for the starting job. Fantasy owners everywhere are praying Sessions wins that battle. Given what they saw last year, many believe at some point this season they’ll get their wish.
O.J. Mayo (G – Mem)
While Mayo enters an overcrowded backcourt this season, he is all but guaranteed to start and will be the
best player in a quartet comprised also of Conley, Crittenton and Lowry. It is widely speculated that one of those three will be traded because at this point Memphis is a little desperate for a big man. Picking the former Trojan may require some patience, as Mayo has just scratched the surface of his potential and will continue to get better as the season progresses. If you’re getting late into a draft (especially a H2H one) and are in search of an upside pick take a shot on Mayo — his points, threes and steals will be a worthwhile supplement but be willing to take a pretty big hit in the FG% and TO departments, as well.
Nene Hilario (FC – Den)
Over his career, as a starter, Nene has posted very nice numbers: over 31 minutes, 55 FG%, 12.4 points, 7 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocks per contest. Courtesy of Nuggets charity work, a starter he will be next season at 26, entering the prime of his career. The key here is opportunity. The Nuggets have pretty much bet the house on his health, relying only on Steven Hunter and Chris Anderson to back him up. In upcoming fantasy drafts, I fully expect him to last until at least the ninth round, at which point you’re entering the realm of potential waiver-wire material. This off-season he sat out the Olympics due to complications after cancer surgery. It's been rumored that he's spending the off-season working with the Nuggets trainers and should be ready for the start of the ’08 campaign.
Jeff Green (F – OKC)
Green’s second half splits last season were a marked improvement over his first. Over the final three months the 22-year-old’s PPG went up at a steady rate, maxing out at just under 16 in April. It’s safe to say you can expect more of the same next year, as there is no one to stand in his way but himself.
Marcus Williams (PG – GS)
The youngster felt he didn’t get a fair shag in Jersey, being passed over for J-Kidd then Devin Harris. He’s got all the opportunity he’ll ever need in the first chunk of the season, running the highest scoring team in the league with a number of sources for assists. When Monta Ellis returns Williams could have cemented himself as the starting point guard, allowing Monta, a natural scorer, to play the off guard position. More than likely he’ll become Monta’s backup and take a significant hit in value. Either way this late in the draft you cannot miss.
Kevin Love (FC – Min)
The biggest knock on Love was the question of whether or not he could handle playing against NBA bigs. Although it was not the Western Conference, Love fared very well in his only four summer games in Vegas, posting 18 points and 13.5 rebounds per game — slightly better than his numbers at UCLA. The soon to be 20-year-old will see a whole lot of burn this season stepping into the starting lineup of one of the league’s worst teams in Minnesota. Many will be picking Al Jefferson a little higher for the pressure Love will take off of him in the post. With this pick you’ve got to hope that knowledge works both ways.
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