With the football season moments away from commencing, draft fanatics are starting to turn towards fantasy basketball to satisfy their undying fetish.
Hi fellow loungers, I’m Austin…a die-hard fanatic here ready to give you some pointers heading into this years draft. I’ll be focusing on some of the tough decisions you’ll encounter specifically this year and a few strategies I’ve picked up along the way from those wiser than me, sprinkled with the flavor only this fanatic brings to a strategy article.
With no further intro necessary…
The Pick 5 Dilemma
After the first four picks are off the board – Paul, Bryant, James and Stoudemire – things get a little dicey. Now most of you guys are probably saying just take Kevin Garnett…safe, solid pick. What I don’t like is 
that last year many thought the 32-year-old Garnett had an MVP type season, but his points, rebounds and assists were significantly worse in Boston than Minnesota. Yes, he was limited somewhat with an abdominal injury midway through the season, but the fact remains he still has to share the ball with two pretty big stars and at this point in his career I don’t see the monster numbers worthy of the fifth overall pick coming back any time soon. Shawn Marion is worth a look here too but when he left Phoenix to a slower Heat team his numbers took a significant hit. Turnovers also play a solid part in these guys’ values and in H2H leagues that doesn’t mean much.
The winner by default here is Dirk Nowitzki. He is still in his prime and his numbers have been steady for the past few years. Most of his offensive stats went up nicely with the addition of Kidd, to boot.
Early Decisions: Injured Stars or Solid Youth
This year there are a few veteran stars that have been perennial first rounders coming off of injuries that will scare owners off. Elton Brand, Dwyane Wade and Gilbert Arenas are the main ones. EB should be drafted as a first rounder because he’s healthy. He proved it last season when he came back for eight games and put up stud numbers. The Olympics have proven Wade to be healthy. As for Gilbert, he’s a bit more of a wild card, but knowing what a competitor he is and how opinionated he is regarding other players on his blog, he doesn’t want to be known as a wasted paycheck, having signed that fat deal in the off-season. He may start off slowly but look for him to be in full form before the All Star Break.
On the other side of the ball, creeping into the first round are solid all around guys like Josh Smith, Deron Williams and Caron Butler. Each of these players are capable of big numbers and if you’re looking for a safe, solid pick at the first turn they’re probably the way to go. If you’re like me and looking for a higher ceiling guy you’ll take a calculated risk on an injured star and hope for the best.
A Guard Oriented Team Can Do Some Damage (courtesy of Fantasy Lounge Member Four Twenty)
The gist of this strategy goes building a team around great guards with your first few picks helps you in more categories than if you go big…especially in H2H. Guard dominated cats are PTS, 3PM, AST, STL, FT%. That’s five out of nine. Factor into the equation that of those five TOs isn’t one of them and you can see why building your team around guards is a solid strategy. It’s not that bigs can’t help out in scoring or some of those other cats it’s just that guards are better at it. Another small advantage is that FT% is a bit more consistent to predict from year to year than the big man dominated cat of FG%. If you can find good rebounding guards early, you can start to scrape together enough boards to stay competitive in the cat without needing to hunt desperately for bangers in the later rounds. This strategy definitely requires some knowledge of sleeper big men though.
Build On Your Strengths
In the same forum thread here where I, the person in the experts seat today, gets schooled a bit, Eno talks about how important this strategy is. He says if you’re doing well in the positive cumulative cats (PTS, 3 PTM, AST, REB, STL, BLK) but poorly in the percentages it’s smarter to stick to your strengths versus reaching for percentage players to even your team out. The fact is in this game winning teams need to dominate certain cats.
The positive cumulative cats are more important to be good in than percentages, which are more subject to chance, or turnovers, the stat dominated by abandoned teams.
Don’t Reach on Rookies
Every year the NBA draft hype surrounding rookies carries over into fantasy drafts and usually the folks who buy in are let down. Mike Conley, Brandan Wright, Corey Brewer and Yi Jianlian are just a few of
last years rookie flops managers were looking at in the later rounds. Meanwhile they were passing on hidden
gems like Mike Dunleavy, Marvin Williams and Daniel Gibson.
It’s fine to go after rookies as sleepers because of their high ceilings but seldom do they reach anywhere near their potential in the first year. This season I wouldn’t look far past Michael Beasley in non-keeper leagues. Although I like O.J. Mayo and Kevin Love at the end of drafts I wouldn’t reach for them. Mayo’s FG% and TOs are roto killers and Love, despite playing well over the summer, still has to prove he’s got a game that translates to the NBA.
In 12 team leagues it’s better strategy to peg rookies at the end of drafts than in 20 teamers in which the post draft wire can look pretty bare, which brings me to my last point…
The Revolving Door
This strategy is especially useful in the popular 12-team H2H style leagues. At the end of your draft you really want to shoot for the moon on your last few picks and look for the guys with the highest ceilings possible. This way when you hit on one out of four guys you leave room for a revolving door throughout the season, which is perfect for streaming against weekly match-ups. If you look down on this practice so be it. Fact of the matter is unless stipulated prior to the draft, streaming is an important part of the game.
It makes me laugh when I see Antonio McDyess taken in the last round of drafts. He’s the perfect example of regular season waiver wire material. Oh sorry, for you sticklers…his numbers are just above that, but while you play him during our weekly match-up, I’ll stream in more hot players and come out on top every time. That is of course if I didn’t pick up a stud with my last pick instead.
In Conclusion…
These are a few of my pointers. Use them if you think they can help, and remember the most important thing to look for in a player is his opportunity for minutes because without that it doesn’t really matter what he can do with them.
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