efantasysportsblog

The Belated Bonus Keys to Any Good Draft

Before I realized that drafts are different for each sport and grouping them as a whole would be sort of silly, my plan was to take my collected draft knowledge and present you with some concrete ideas that could be carried into any draft. That was over a month ago. So with this plan in the back of my mind all along, I bring to you the concept that spawned the series "Keys to the Draft."

1. The importance of position — The middle and end positions can be defined most clearly and therefore are the best examples to be used in this case. 

A Yahoo! snake draft (last pick in the first round has first pick in the second round, etc.) can be anywhere from four to 20 players long. This advice will be most helpful in situations where there are 12 or more. In such scenarios there are distinct differences between being in the middle or on the end of the snake, but I wouldn't say there is a definitive advantage to either one. Advantages change from year to year in different sports. Those years in which there is a clear cut number one overall player, like the 2008 version of Alex Rodriguez, and there is some value to be had in the late second/early third round turn in your typical 12 person draft, like B.J. Upton, it definitely helps to have the first overall pick (which is on the end, of course).

• The ends often start the runs — As I've explained in the baseball strategy post, a run is when players of the same position start flying off the board in bunches. This is how managers on the end develop a certain mentality: Say you join a typical 20 person draft from the list of available Yahoo! custom leagues and have the 20th pick. Sadly but surely you're only going to draft about every 20 minutes. Those two picks are almost like having one because no one stands in between. You won't need to adjust for another manager's pick. More so than others, you're going to want to place more value on a player's position, his cat production and not just be on the look out for pure value. A lot of your picks will be spent strictly on filling needs. Knowing that you won't have a chance at your next player for another 38 selections, you may start to reach to fill whatever holes you're likely to encounter later on. This is how runs get started. For example, when it comes to closers typically there is a top tier taken within the first 60 picks. For all the rest, the drafters have an unspoken understanding that anyone taken from a lower tier could ignite a run. Now hypothetically there's this guy at the end of the snake with pick 60 who really likes closers. Understandably to us, but maybe not to him, all the premier stoppers are gone. If he doesn't like the thought of 38 more picks between him and his next chance at a closer, he's going to reach early. But a few picks later another manager reaches because the player they really wanted was taken by the original reacher, and they too desire a good closer. It's easy to see how the ball gets rolling.

• Folks in the middle catch the runs — One leg up for those in the middle is that it's difficult for runs to escape them. No matter how long a draft, being in the middle usually means you can't go on vacation between picks. You need to stay pretty attentive. In your hyper-alert state, you will see what runs are potentially starting and can begin planning out which guys you're hoping to catch in the middle. There are fewer picks between you and the other managers so you've got more room for error to pick for position while also having more leeway to draft for pure value.

2. Trapping — Some would just call this smart drafting, but I've named this strategy and I think it's one that everyone should know. This is where the people on the end really get screwed.

Usually managers second or third from the end have the advantage of trapping the manager(s) on the very end. Trapping is employed when these near-enders are in need of a certain player position.

An easy example is if you're in a baseball draft, needing a catcher, and you're the third pick from the end. Instead of just taking a catcher on the way up, you want to check if the managers behind you each have one because once the snake gets behind you, there will be four more picks before you get another shot. If each of the other two have catchers, you want go ahead and take the next guy on your board and avoid taking a catcher until the snake is on its way back down. Odds are the two other managers won't take another catcher but instead make you miss out on that other player you really wanted.

The above example is only the most clear-cut version of trapping. There are more tricky scenarios in football and basketball drafts in which there are fewer selections to be made. Then, as Mike McD from Rounders would say, it's all about what's in your guts. Will the other manager go for that fourth receiver? Will he reach for a third center? This is when you need to know your priorities and where to place your value.

My friends and I use this strategy on one another and other unfortunate managers. It's just a nice little way to get ahead.

Keys to Rocking Your Basketball Draft

By Austin Brown

Like cutting backdoor for an open layup, a basketball draft is as easy as it gets in the world of major fantasy sports drafting. For me, compared to a baseball draft, doing well involves little more than being able to stay awake for an hour and finding a comfortable place on the couch. Consider these tips so you can field a winner before you try drafting your all white guys squad, who will surely not sniff a fantasy title. With no further adieu, it's Andris Beidrins with the 12th overall pick (cough, cough). Actually it's my keys for winning your draft.

1. Know the difference between being in a Rotisserie vs. a Head to Head League — It's basic knowledge that rotisserie (roto) leagues limit squads to a maximum of 82 games played per position, meaning when players get injured it hurts teams less than in head to head (H2H) leagues where there is no limit to the amount of games a team can play. Managers can plug players in off the bench and the other teams in the league won't get the advantage of playing more games. On top of that, in roto stats are accumulated over an entire season, making it less important to have players healthy at certain times. Right now in my H2H league, Rasheed Wallace is taking some time off to rest. Only problem for me is this is coming at playoff time, and each game he sits I lose stats I desperately need.

Speaking of fantasy playoffs, a useful strategy when prepping for your H2H draft is to check down the road for playoff schedules. If you go on BasketballMonster.com (BBM) and punch in "Schedule Grid" you can see how many games your desired player is playing during each crucial week of the fantasy basketball playoffs (weeks 22 - 24). Going even further, you could take a look at the "Ease Rankings" for the previous year to see which guys might have harder fantasy playoff matchups. These rankings show you how difficult it is for players to post stats against certain teams. It goes as far as telling you which positions have the most success and listing rankings for how hard it is to come by individual stats. At the risk of sounding like a promo, the best part is it's all free.

In a roto league, guys like Shane Battier or Josh Childress will contribute in all nine categories over an entire season which gives them more value. They won't give you numbers that will have you in wonders, but they don't produce the negative stats that can accumulate over an entire season to kill you. To use a track analogy, be aware that in H2H you want to have sprinters, but in roto you find more value in marathon runners, like a Battier or a Childress.

In a H2H league, it can make sense to punt one or two categories, but this is not recommended in roto leagues, where having 1's in two cats will certainly sink your chances. Most people in H2H leagues will chose to punt turnovers because the more guys you play the higher your TO numbers will be, and you're typically trying to play as many guys as possible. Also less importance can be placed on FT% because it's very unpredictable from week to week. No matter how good your team is in this stat, you will still sometimes lose to teams you should beat.

So who's the perfect player to use as an example here?

...look, it's Superman to the rescue.

Dwight Howard makes a bigger impact that any other player changing from a roto to a H2H league. With his three plus turnovers per game, he is near the top of the league, and from the center position no less. He also has the most negative impact a player could have on a team's FT%. Shooting over 11 per game at just under 60 percent. But if you take TO's and FT% out of the equation, Dwight vaults to the third most valuable player in fantasy basketball. When you put those two stats back in, he plummets to number 74.

In a H2H league, you're looking for consistency. Going into a draft, it's important to know which stats are more or less consistent on a weekly basis. Typically guys who are big scorers don't have off weeks. But a high steals guy, like Ron Artest, will have some weeks where he has two steals and some weeks where he has 12.

2. Your team must have three serviceable centers — Being the weakest spot to find talent and not only needing one but two, you should have at least one decent backup. This strategy is a must because in fantasy basketball two positions and no backup is blasphemy. All the other positions will typically fill up quickly in a draft, but most teams are weak at center, which is why you want to be strong. And nine times out of ten you get that strength in the draft.

I go for value in any draft, but I like it when a good center falls to me within the first four rounds, one that can establish my team in FG%, REBs, BLKs, and can chip in with double digit points. That's my perfect center. But you need two more who are going to stick it out through the season.

This year, Andrew Bynum would have been the ideal third center. Going into the season, he had supreme upside and wasn't being drafted until the double digit rounds. Despite the injury he suffered midway through the season, his averages rank him as the 27th best player in fantasy to date, normally producing over a double-double (10+ points and 10+ rebounds), with two blocks and the second highest FG% in the league. Al Horford would have been a great pickup as well, lasting to the last round or two of most drafts. He averages nearly a double-double, with one block and one steal. These two examples should tell you that opportunity as well as upside are what you hope to find in your backup center.

3. Be ready to make compensations — If your first round pick hurts you in certain areas, be ready to draft guys who can take up the slack. Going into this season, drafting LeBron James as your first overall pick over Shawn Marion was fine, but the difference was night and day.

Being the best across the board contributor probably in fantasy basketball history, Marion wouldn't hurt you in any cats and wouldn't leave you lacking in any either. You could go about taking your next pick pretty much as if nothing happened,
which is a very nice luxury.

On the other hand, spending your first round pick on Bron Bron means you were really hurting in two categories—FT% and TO's. Here you needed to make up the difference in the ensuing picks with high FT%, low turnover guys preferably at the wing position, like a Kevin Martin or Rashard Lewis. Ideally  you want your assistance to come from the same position that the guy your compensating for plays to make for a more balanced team.

The earlier you adjust, the less help you'll need, meaning one or two guys can pull you out of your hole. Get into the later rounds and you'll need to find three or four guys to stay afloat. 

4. Know which stats to draft for and where to place your value — Generally, there are certain stats you can only draft and won't find in free agency.

Typically, if you want a guy who's going to average more than 15 points per game, you need to draft him. But if you're looking for someone to dish you five or six assists, you can find him on the waiver wire.

You won't find guards who can score and shoot high percentages on the wire. Neither will you find big men who can average you a double-double.

What you'll typically find are guys who help in certain areas but hurt in others. Like mixes of guys with high 3 PTM and low FG% or the opposite.  Or high blocks/rebounds and low FT% or vica versa.

So don't go into the season needing to find new hidden gems, like the previously undrafted Jose Calderon or Monta Ellis, on the wire. You typically have to draft for those kinds of stats.

5. Do the research and anticipate performances — There will always be experts pulling you one way or the other when you're looking to draft a first round pick. But try real hard to resist  the temptation of having someone else make your pick for you. Instead, create your own formula for judging players. Knowing the game pretty well, I find it helpful to watch guys play, or at least watch highlights, to scout fantasy potential. Anytime you see guys who are all over the court and involved in every play (ala Andre Iguodala or Josh Smith), you should think, this is who I want.

It's important to know:

• Who's undervalued because they're coming off of a sub par year — e.g. Kobe Bryant in '06.

• Who's undervalued because they're coming back from injury — Ask yourself: What type of injury did he suffer? How long will he be out? Past the All Star Break? You can even go as far as playing doctor online and find out how quickly it takes to heal from certain injuries.

• Which young guys are going to break out — A lot of this has to do with an opportunity for playing time. Sometimes trades have been made to create vacancies. Or new coaches are been brought in, who either favor veterans or favor youth. Also look for which young guys finished strong last year—check out Pre All Star/Post All Star, as well as month to month split stats.

6. Know the max positions you want — On your standard 13 player Yahoo! team, along with at least the three centers, you also want no more than four point guards (I like to shoot for three), no more than five guards total, and at least five PF/C's. Fill out the rest with SG/SF's and you'll be set. This just means that you should never have to sit guys because you're overstocked at the position. And your team will play more games because you're not understocked at any position.

You'll find these rules hard to stick by, but if you keep them in mind at the outset your team will be all the better for it.

7. Keep percentages in the back of your mind — Before a draft it helps to weigh the volume of shots each player takes from the field and free throw line against their percentages. The only way I go about doing this (until someone shows me a better one) is to put FG% and FT% individually into BBM to compare values. The Mendoza Line for percentages is typically FG 45% and FT 78%. At particular positions, guards go FG 44% and FT 80%, whereas big men go FG 50% and FT 75%.

Being the most difficult stats to come by, winning teams usually have a nice footing in the percentages.
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*Special thanks to nebgib5 from the Fantasy Cafe, along with a number of other Cafe members for contributing their ideas.

Keys to a Good Baseball Draft: The Honesty Hook

You know, I had a fancy idea about how I was going to hook you into this story. My plan was to declare that fantasy baseball was like a gateway drug, because it's what got me hooked on fantasy sports. Then hoping to dazzle, I would throw out some facts about the history of baseball, some arcane statistics, and finish by touching on the birth of the nation wide addiction to fantasy sports.

Sounds pretty good, right? Only problem is throwing out pretentious facts wouldn't inspire the right message, so I will spare you any attempt at eloquence and replace it with the truth.

I bring a unique perspective to fantasy baseball, in that I represent a minority that is reluctant to be exposed:

The draft addict.

I probably did some 200 odd fantasy baseball drafts between the 2003 and 2005 seasons. In 2004, I managed to tie myself to over 100 leagues (always standard 5x5 cats), averaging probably two drafts a day from the start of the drafting season to the end.

I admit that I’d join Yahoo! leagues, knowing I probably wouldn’t see them through. I became addicted to chasing after perfection. Every time I went into a draft, I’d think, “This is the going to be the one. This will be the perfect team.” Every once in a while I’d feel I had reached perfection, or at least as close as one could get. Then, not knowing what to do with myself, I’d try for even better. After joining all these leagues, I’d look back and know I’d have to spend every waking minute to keep up with them. And for what? The draft was the best part.

In prepping for my many drafts, I've developed more than elementary knowledge of this game, spending many waking hours reading articles from people in the know and forum posts from "the fantasy baseball nation." I find baseball different from other fantasy sports in one way: there are a million different strategies capable of winning a draft.

One common factor in any fantasy baseball strategy is that you are on the look out for value, a term I’ve heard reiterated so often in these circles it’s started to lose meaning, like repeating the same word until it no longer sounds like English.

Where a player goes in a draft determines his draft value, while the stats he produces determine his real value. With there being different stat categories to fill, what you're trying to do is figure out which ones are harder to come by, so you can draft accordingly. Making things even trickier, you have to account for which positions have value, and in which rounds they start running thin.

It's fine to take a Ryan Zimmerman at third base in the eighth round because of the upside, but are you paying too much of a price? Wouldn't it help more to take an undervalued Troy Glaus in the 16th? This is what fantasy baseball is all about—knowing where you can find the best bargains.

Some strategists look to fill certain cats in the beginning of a draft. They determine to themselves what’s more important to anchor their lineup with, speed or power, and they take the players with the best overall value. Others enter leaning toward filling in need positions, such as middle infielders and catchers. Those who do this usually sink to reaching for players with less value when they miss out on the guys they were hoping to draft.

It’s smart to draft for cat value in the early rounds, then try to fill out your roster later. At the beginning of drafts, stud players give you huge numbers and those are where you place premier importance. You can find a middle infielder or catcher later on if those positions have lost value for the time being, but those 30-30 guys are few and far between.

More winning strategy...

1. Get in on the beginning of player runs, not the end — When players at the same position start flying off the board quickly that is known as a run. What you look for are guys at the top tier of the run.

When a particular position is reached for in a draft and a long run to the end ensues, it’s to your benefit to have started the run. In my rotisserie league with the folks from Fantasy Lounge Sports, I remember the popular consensus in our forum discussions was placing a high value on closers. When the ultimate sin happened and I couldn't make my draft, player rankings had to be set to avoid the dreaded computer picked team. Relying on my elephant's memory, I ranked premier closers higher than usual, knowing to find equal value I’d need to draft the position before people started reaching for them.

And when those middle rounds came, reach they did, left and right. A couple of mentionables were Joakim Soria drafted with the last pick of the ninth round, followed by Todd Jones with the first pick of the tenth. In comparison, the rounds they go in an average Yahoo! draft are 13 and 14 respectively.   

The auto pick gave me JJ Putz in the fifth and Takashi Saito in the seventh, the two highest ranked closers last year. In the process, I was handed players at equal value to where they were selected, without the computer having to reach for a closer a few rounds later, where there'd be less value in the pick.

But now I want you to forget all that because I wouldn’t call taking early closers more of a winning strategy than a good example of getting in on runs early. My next piece of advice will show you how much of a flip flopper I am when it comes to picking strategy.

2. Take your closers in the mid to late rounds — Simple fact is relievers pitch less innings than starters, so their numbers hold less weight. Jonathan Papelbon may get you a sub 2.00 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP, but he's not going to throw over 70 innings and have more than 100 strike outs. Your average middle round closer, like a Chad Cordero will service you a low 3.00 ERA and a WHIP around 1.30. Each will get you about 40 saves, which is the stat you're really chasing anyway, but the good peripherals (ERA, WHIP) Papelbon brings will most likely be drowned out by other pitchers you have going, especially your high inning starters. Neither will finish with enough strikeouts for the difference to be really worth considering. So what are you getting out of the closer you took seven rounds ahead of Cordero? Peripherals that don't make much of an impact and a few extra K's. It's better to stack up your saves later on, taking guys without magical numbers but pretty good job security, like a Cordero. Which brings me to my next point.

3. Have a plan for which pitching cats to go after — Because pitchers' stats are too tough to predict from week to week since each throws so few innings, you should try to win only certain cats.

One winning strategy, which works especially well in rotisserie leagues, is to draft two upper tiered starting pitchers as anchors, then fill out your staff with closers and top relievers. While the solid starters will provide good innings and wins, the assortment of relievers go after three of the five categories, the peripherals (ERA, WHIP) and saves, with the option of a fourth.

To have the next cat be wins you can stream for favorable starting pitching matchups, and there's a good chance all those relievers will lower your peripherals enough to still rule those cats.

4. Hitters always first – Like hoarding running backs is common in fantasy football, so has hoarding hitters become in this game. There are a few reasons why:

• Along with putting up sexier stats than pitchers, their numbers are more solo dependent, making their performances easier to predict.
  
• Pitchers are also the more often injured players, constantly battling arm, shoulder and back problems. In the early rounds you want guaranteed production, which a hitter will more likely provide.
• I know it's kind of cheap to put in (like having the word you're defining in the definition) but...because hitters go early and often, you can pass on the high round pitchers and still find great value in the later rounds.

5. Always look for high risk/high reward players at the end of drafts – This is a cheap way to get ahead. Instead of taking, for example, good old Garret Anderson in the last round, you should be looking to add the less known Billy Butler. While Anderson ended up with better cumulative stats last year and therefore will be ranked higher than Butler, the youngster will bring you a 99 percent higher rate of return.

Although you will strike out many more times than succeed when drafting sleepers, the risk is so minute it’s not even worth thinking about. There will always be players with similar value to Grandpa Garret on the waiver wire, but the chances of hitting a home run with a young talent like Butler are few and far between.

In conclusion...

If you're out there like I was, doing all these drafts then forgetting about the teams and are afraid to have people call you on it, let 'em. Those public leagues are so barren by mid season it's obvious you're not the only one doing it. So be a little proud of your drafting ambitions. But always remember while you're off chasing perfection, you're also letting down the guys in your league who are trying to make it competitive...and karma's a bitch.
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*Special Thanks to Seth Allingham for schooling me on fantasy baseball strategy, making for a better entry.

The Keys to a Good Draft: Football

     Few things surpass waking up in the morning to a big draft. After the grogginess subsides and that first moment of joy has passed, I get to thinking about the task ahead. For success in this game you need the right strategy and the patience to prepare. What follows is the first of a weekly three part series, briefly covering the three majors—football, baseball and basketball—in which I bring you smart strategies to be worked towards when prepping for a big draft.

This week it's back to the gridiron.

1. Football drafts are no different from any other sport in that you need to do your research. There is no supplement for knowing more than the opponent. Heading into your first draft of the season can be tough when you're not as prepared as you'd like to be. Too much time away from the game, spent with other fantasy sports and that little thing called reality, can cut your legs out from under you. You lose your edge and ability to make quick decisions, and you even lose a bit of your strategy. Here are some good things to know when heading into your draft:

• Who's been injured in the offseason — You need to know who's out, for how long and with what type of injury. If you don't do this first step, you're setting a poor tone for the rest.

• Who's changed teams — This knowledge goes hand in hand with knowing injuries. When players switch teams they usually step into different roles, and the players left behind get new roles too. When Dominic Rhodes headed for Oakland in '06, Joseph Addai vaulted to a top fantasy option in Indianapolis, while Rhodes saw a bit of a decrease in value, heading from a time share with a good offense to a time share with a bad one. Many owners got what they were looking for out of Kevin Curtis last year. In his change from the third option in St. Louis to option 1A in Philly, White Lightning had moved far up on people's draft boards, and to few people's surprise his numbers improved drastically.

• Which running backs are likely to break out — Those banking on Marshawn Lynch last year were certainly left satisfied. But those Nostradamuses, like Yahoo! columnist Brandon Funston, who saw Adrian Peterson's monster season coming out of nowhere were left ecstatic. All I heard on my favorite site was Chester Taylor hype. Everyone was so caught up in the situation of the time share and Chester's solid season in '06, they didn't see pure talent winning out. As Peterson proved, it's favorable to have knowledge of the new guard as well as the old. Knowing when to seperate the hype from the truth comes in handy when knowing where to rate youngsters entering new situations. Many were banking on Cedric Benson coming into his own last season. But instead of being the work horse everyone thought he would be, he looked more like he was ready to be put out to stud.

• What teams had coaching changes and when to buy or sell — New coaches bring new playbooks and different strategy, which carries over to players getting new roles and different results. But as shown in Atlanta last season, this change is hard to rely on. Jerious Norwood was a young guy people thought the coaching change to Bobby Petrino would benefit. Many were saying Norwood was going to take over as the primary back for the aging Warrick Dunn. After all he ended strongly the year before and their was the factor that Petrino preferred bigger backs. Well apparently he wasn't big enough. And when it came to choosing between the two undersized backs, Petrino took the aging light weight and rushed him more than twice as much as Norwood to the chagrin of many.
  

• Which young recievers have finally gotten their heads out of the playbook and into the game — If you develop more than a layperson's knowledge of fantasy football, you'll hear the myth of the third year reciever. It's simply that by the third season of an NFL wideout's career they are ready to excel into what they are going to become: boom or bust. Braylon Edwards' '07 sesaon is the perfect example. This guy was the number 3 overall pick in the '05 draft. He was supposed to be a special player, heads and shoulders above any other receiver coming into the league that year. He started off solid enough. Between his first and second seasons he doubled his catch total to 61 and his TD total to 6 while bumping his receiving yards up by more than a third to make an 880 total. In his third season, he absolutely erupted, posting 80 catches, nearly 1,300 yards and 16 TD's. If you bought on this guy in the 6th round, you most likely found yourself a bargain that walked you right into your fantasy league's playoffs.

• What vets are entering the twilights of their careers — When an aging running back gets ready to step aside, a youngster with fresh legs is usually waiting in the wings. When an elderly quarterback suffers a lengthy injury, there often happen to be unknown guys who are able to fill their shoes. So you don't miss any of the future Larry Johnsons or Tom Bradys out there, always be ready to pounce when a crucial cog in a team's engine is replaced by a younger part.
  

2. Take your running backs early and often. Like many, I have trouble sticking to this rule. But it is an important one to follow because while being your most valuable commodities, the most oft-injured players on a fantasy football team will be running backs. When Steven Jackson went down at the beginning of last season it hurt a lot of people who were banking on him to give them great production. They needed to have good backup running backs to survive that hit so early on.

    With the idea of hoarding backs the most popular strategy around, and the need for a team to fill two starting slots with only so many useful options, pickings get slim toward the middle rounds. QB's and wideouts have less than equal value because they come in more abundance. Two thirds of the leagues quarterbacks are sufficient enough to start, needing to fill only one slot. And on each NFL team there are generally up to three decent wide receiver options with a total of three fantasy slots to fill. By the end of the season Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will probably score more points, but LaDanian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook will win more championships.

3.Make kickers and defenses your last two picks. This is a standard part to any draft I do. Those who get antsy and reach for these are statisically less likely to succeed. A kicker scores a lot of points but their performances are hard to predict from week to week, let alone over a full season. On the other side of the ball,  you have examples of Baltimore in '06 and San Diego and Chicago in '07; the list goes on and on of defense/special teams people have reached for in the draft only to come up short. For some teams like the Chargers, they're a little slow out of the gate and people throw them back into free agency, wasting their 9th or 10th round pick.

Instead of taking a Chicago in the middle of the draft, these defense-reachers should have taken a chance on a third or fourth running back, and if they were lucky could have found an undervalued Adrian Peterson. That way when their top pick Laurence Maroney was a bust, their fantasy season wouldn't have been over.